Dan Erwin

How the Republicans Won the Election

Actually, the real issue is how the Democrats lost the election. That’s where it all happened. So, let me explain.

I’ve read at least 8 to 10 analyses of the Republican victory, none of which made much sense to me. In thinking the process over, I noticed that to an unusual degree the analyses were based on the psychological model and its theories. A model, which because of my business experience, always gives me pause. Or a stomach ache.

So, is there a better understanding of the election? Well, whatever . . . the understanding needs to be based on the various commitments of major tribes—not on the individual psyche.

Trump got that interpretation—or at least the Republican leadership understood it.

So once more. What was the election all about? Why the monstrous Democratic losses? An outsider seems to have gotten it right. A Brit: Janan Ganesh, the international editor of London’s Financial Times, one of my favorite papers for a different tribal approach to news. And a writer who lived long enough some years ago in Los Angeles to get our American culture.

His article, How the Democrats can win in 2028, provides his analysis of the democratic loss as backdrop for his conclusions for 2028.

Why Strategic Competency Is Especially Difficult to Build

Thirty years ago, I had one of those seminal experiences that are even more important and relevant today. I had been coaching a director-level research manager at a world renown company that has since been integrated into an even larger, international firm. I was essentially supporting the development of highly complex thinking skills.

My focus, at the request of the EVP of Research, was to assist his subordinate in development of strategic organizational thinking skills. These were not merely planning skills, but complex strategic thinking that might result in drastic changes for research, manufacturing and marketing.

Nine months later, when the coaching was nearly finished, the EVP called me into his office, expressing his deep satisfaction with my work. Then he made an unusual statement: “If you can develop these cognitive skills in others, I can keep you busy the rest of your life.”

I laughed and said no, that wasn’t possible. He was very surprised and wanted an explanation why not. I commented that a huge majority of business people were linear thinkers and couldn’t get out of that box to develop strategy, a non-linear competency.

The widespread lack of strategic organizational competency is still present today. For example, major research at Northwestern University finds that most business people are very poor at analogical thinking, an absolute necessity for macro strategy work. They simply lack the kind of educational background to make that possible. Though a lot of technology managers say they can do strategy, their expertise rarely stands up to serious scrutiny.

Israel vs. Hamas Is Best Understood as a “Waiting Game”

Understanding social reality is especially important for managing long time career success. Though the term is not regularly used in business, reality structures are nothing more than a mental framework that helps people understand and interpret the world around them.  Over the years I’ve found that reality structures can differ between one corporation and another. The 3M reality differs significantly, for example, from the Ralston Purina reality. 3M is strongly oriented to research, while Ralston is strongly oriented to marketing. The consequence is that research behaviors get a lot of attention at 3M, and little at Ralston. You get my gist.
In this post, I want to introduce you to a major social reality that operates in many different contexts.

The “waiting game”
“Waiting game” is a social reality in which one or more participants withhold action temporarily in the hope of having a favorable opportunity for more effective action later.

Swearing Is Good for You

In a fascinating little book titled in this blog post, Emma Byrne lays out "the amazing science of bad language." The two blurbs on the back cover of the book are more than enough to gain a reader's attention. 

"A good book about bad language by a trash-talkimg woman? Sign me up! Swaring Is Good for You makes science feel downright celebratory." Mary Norris, best selling author of Between You and Me.

"I"m evangelical in my defense of swearing, not just on the grounds of freedom of expression, but because swearing is beneficial to us both as individuals and as a species. Is this book an attempt to justify rudeness and aggression? Not at all. I certainly wouldnt want profanities to become commonplace: swearing needs to maintain its emotional impact in order to become effective. So I'm not necessarily encouraging people to swear more, but I do hope they'll give swearing the respect it fucking deserves.  --From the Introduction.

The Bias for Doing . . .

And the Lost Art of Thinking

On numerous occasions as a management consultant, I asked execs about how much time they took to think about process, innovation and strategy. Often, the response was that they didn’t have time to think. A couple said that they were paying me to do the thinking. A compliment, but very unwise. And I provided a very deliberate rationale for refusing that business opportunity.

So how did we get to the place where managers don’t realize that thinking is part of their job?  
In a very thoughtful and fascinating article in the MIT Sloan Management Review, Duncan Simester pointed out that the bias for doing, not thinking, is built into business. Companies succeed by creating a successful business model—and then scaling it massively. Massive scaling requires a “finely tuned system with highly standardized processes.” So, getting promoted requires “almost a singular focus on execution.

In other words, it requires action more than thinking.” So guess what? It’s inevitable that we focus on what we get rewarded for. And in business, that’s execution.

Anger Intelligence Is the Most important Competency. . . Not Anger Management

There’s a genuine distinction between anger intelligence and anger management. Some have a few, healthy anger management skills, but it seems to me that very few people have anger intelligence competencies. Indeed, I suspect most have never thought about anger intelligence. It is however, a historical study.

Anger is usually viewed as a disrupting, destructive emotion, especially in business — unless, of course, you’re a well-placed executive without those limitations. The religious typically view anger as bad stuff, something we should set aside and, to quote St. Paul, never go to sleep with. Paul, however, never kept his own rule. So like most generalities, there are exceptions. Indeed, there are times when anger is strategic, and also times when it’s simply not useful to set anger aside, much less forgive the target of your anger.

To be clear, studies have shown that anger evolved as a means to help us express feelings of being undervalued. Showing anger signals that if we aren’t treated fairly or if we don’t get treated fairly, it’s going to cost the other person(s) either harm or benefits. It’s that emphasis I want you to consider.

No Yoda, But a Collage of Mentors: Part 4

Question any leader or executive about their success and eventually they’ll tell you that their mentor played a big role. Today, however, there is no Jedi-Master Yoda, wise and powerful, taking on people and unlocking the paths to business immortality. The onus is now yours to find numerous mentors, build the relationships, learn from them, weave the skills together, and create your successful identity. No single master, but a collage of mentors. 

Finding your mentors
You’ll normally rub shoulders with skills mentors, people willing to help and mentor, during your first week at a company. It’s important from the outset to find the more capable people. Relational mentors, in contrast, are more difficult to locate. But you should watch interactions both within and outside your discipline, looking for potential mentors. Relational experts tend to be excellent facilitators, know how to question without making people defensive, have a lot of language at their fingertips, can read people well, create a motivational atmosphere and readily engage in team problem solving. As you become a good “noticer of mentors” you’ll have a leg up on your competition. 
 
Locating career and strategic mentors is a much more difficult game...

The American Apocalypse: A Premature Obituary

America’s rule of the globe is coming to an end. Destroyed, we’re told, by China. Fear is a terrific motivator—at least in the short term. So plenty of economists and business people go about earning their stripes with apocalyptic warnings about our soon demise. But, actually, that notion and its underpinnings are all nonsense.

Fear gets to us even when reason suggests otherwise. A few decades ago, the alarmism was all about the Japanese and their booming economy. And you know what happened there. Still the fear is a great vote-getter for some opportunistic politicians.

But Harvard’s Joseph Nye has put a dagger in the hearts of those who like to propagandize about our soon demise. You may not know Nye, but “all roads to understanding American foreign policy run through Nye.”  He’s the one who pioneered...

Just Get On With It

One thing better managers understand is that they get rewarded for what they do. Not what they plan. The Hungarian Nobel Laureate Albert Szen-Gyorti made this point in one of the greatest--and most hilarious--stories of the 20^th century.

The experience happened during military maneuvers early in the 20^th century. The young lieutenant of a small Hungarian detachment in the Alps sent a reconnaissance unit into the icy wilderness. It began to snow immediately, snowed for 2 days, and the unit did not return. The lieutenant suffered, fearing that he had dispatched his own people to death. But on the third day the unit came back. Where had they been? How had they made their way? Yes, they said, we considered ourselves lost and waited for the end. And then ...

What Happens When Your Theory No Longer Works?

All of us have our own theories about how relationships, careers and life are supposed to work. Typically, they are implicit, but they are just as powerful when we don’t recognize them. As I noted in a recent blog, theories sneak up on all of us. Our theories impact reality in profound ways that most never see, never think about or are even willing to believe. But our social theories profoundly influence how we think about ourselves, how we think about our world and how we act, even when a theory is now obsolete.

One of the most classic theories about work and pay was destroyed back in the 1930s by Henry Ford. The theory was that you should pay your worker as little as possible and expect 12 hours work a day. The old man looked at the Model T that he was making and trying to sell for $500 and decided that theory would no longer work. His market was limited by the poor salaries he paid his employees. Much to the chagrin of American business and Wall Street, Ford nearly tripled the salaries of his employees overnight, putting them on an eight hour day just so they could buy the car they built and have the time to drive it around. Wallah! There you have it. Ford became one of the richest men in the world almost overnite. . .