Dan Erwin

Nobelist Robert Shiller’s New Approach to Economics: The “Economic Narrative.”

My graduate research early in the 1980s was focused on narratives. By that time education had begun to realize that teaching just facts or principles without embedding them in stories was a poor way of teaching. The primary reason for that wasn’t fully understood until neuroscience got in the business of figuring out how memory and understanding work. The result of a lot of research was that memory is based on stories that we put into our gray matter, not on principles or facts. Sounds dumbly obvious today, but it wasn’t obvious until fairly recent.

I studied narrative and brief stories from the standpoint of their actual form and then the underlying values that caused people to buy into the story. What made most sense to me was that stories primarily take the form of tragedy, comedy or fairy tale. Tragedy and comedy are two very different ways of attacking human experience. And fairy tale is something else!

Tragedy is about destiny and fate. I just finished watching the four seasons of The Bureau, a French series on espionage. The final ending was a tragedy, where the leading character experienced the fate of death (Don’t let that keep you from watching the series. It’s just fascinating.) I responded as an American and didn’t like that ending, even though it made perfect sense. The French and especially the Greeks love tragedy. The Greeks always look first for tragedy and I suspect that’s part of the reason their economy is in the shitter. We Americans much prefer comedy—not “funny ha-ha,” but someone succeeding as a result of their wit, wisdom and strength, like all the John Wayne stories of the past (that really dates me!) But Americans really, really love fairy tale—someone coming to the rescue, like the cavalry rescuing the settlers from the Indians (that’s not politically correct, but we still like these stories in different contexts. Today, they often take the shape of mysteries with an especially sharp detective, who’s often a female!) Social psych has found that American optimism—related, I’m sure to our beliefs in priorities of comedy and fairy tale are part of the rationale for our national success.

So, what does narrative have to do with business and economics?
I learned just a few years into business consulting that the stories people told revealed as much about their firm as direct questioning...

Best, Most Hilarious, Politico Introduction of Mayor Pete Buttegieg

I couldn't stop laughing when Buttigieg introduced himself this way: "This is the only chance you'll ever get to vote for a Maltese-American, left-handed, Episcopalian, gay, war veteran, mayor millennial." Now that's what I call authenticity.

Here's how Andrew Sullivan compared Buttigieg to Trump:

Trump would be the oldest president in history at 74; Buttigieg would be the youngest at 39. Trump landed in politics via his money and celebrity after years in the limelight; Buttigieg is the mayor of a midsize midwestern town, unknown until a few weeks ago. Trump is a pathological, malevolent narcissist from New York, breaking all sorts of norms. Buttigieg is a modest, reasonable pragmatist, and a near parody of normality. Trump thrives on a retro heterosexual persona; Buttigieg appears to be a rather conservative, married homosexual. Trump is a coward and draft dodger; Buttigieg served his country. Trump does not read; Buttigieg does. Trump’s genius is demonic demagoguery. Buttigieg’s gig is careful reasoning. Trump is a pagan; Buttigieg is a Christian. Trump vandalizes government; Buttigieg nurtures it.

To put it simply, Mayor Pete seems almost designed to expose everything that makes the country tired of Trump.

Plainly Corrupt or "Legally" Corrupt?

Recently a delightful, young Middle Eastern couple and their small children moved into my apartment building. Like a number of new residents, they are exceptionally well educated. He, for example has a PhD in health economics from an American University. Both worked for a few years at well-known Silicon Valley corporations, but are here for further education.

Knowing my background, the young man and I sat down to talk about some linguistic rules. He was searching for day care for his younger daughter and wanted to know what he could and couldn’t say in an interview. And how best to find out whether a given school center would be best for his daughter. It’s rare for an international to ask about linguistic rules, so his questions of me were not only unusual, but especially astute.

After I laid out some protocols and suggested several different ways to gain as much information as possible for his decision, we got to talking about...

#MeToo, After One Year

The latest issue of The Economist  (9/29/2018) devotes its lead article to the #MeToo movement. A positive and constructive editorial, the authors drop fascinating tidbits of sociological and historical insight along the way. They argue that women's testimony is being taken more seriously--at last.

But they point out a clear possibility: if #MeToo becomes a Democrats only movement, it will be set back. The polling reveals its partisanship: 39% of Republican women think it's a problem  that men get away with. That compares to 66% of Democratic women. The inevitable consequence of these figures, they argue, is that some men will excuse their behavior on the grounds that it's all a Democratic ploy.

The closing paragraph offers the best insight: 

Deciding Whether to Buy a Book. . . .

Or, why I bought Yascha Mounk’s The People vs Democracy.

If you have only so much time to read and you’re watching your pennies, how do you decide whether to buy a new book outside your area of expertise? One way to go at that is to check out who’s reviewing the book. You may not know all the reviewers, but you can probably flag bias pretty quickly if you read a few of the online reviews. Next you have to ask yourself what you think about the bias. And then, decide. I bought Mounk’s book on the above basis!

Mounk’s recent book The People vs. Democracy has been reviewed or commented about positively in the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, The Economist, Washington Post, The Atlantic and the New Yorker. That says “buy me.” I had read his earlier book with much admiration, and this was another fascinating study to buy and digest.

Mounk points out that democracy—not just in the US—is going through its worst crisis since..

On the Super Bowl as Bread and Circus

The first time I stumbled across the phrase “bread and circus,” it was the name of an upscale Massachusetts grocery store owned by Whole Foods. But the phrase kept zinging around in my gray matter as a Latin metonymic (a figure of speech consisting of the use of the name of one thing for that of another). It’s like that reference to the “crown,” which most of us know refers to the English monarchy. Brits might say, for example, “Balmoral is owned by the crown.”

Occasionally you’ll find bread and circus used to describe the creation of public approval by distraction. You know, Trump’s Twitter zingers. He’s a master, par excellence, of one political strategy: distraction. Political scientists would know that you can offer some immediate shallow requirements as a sop to the populace and keep them from focusing on important matters. Nothing new over the centuries.

Trump is certainly not the only genius at distraction. Ronald Reagan had the Air Force’s $7,622 coffeepot and the Navy’s $435 claw hammer, as well as an ill-fated effort to save money by classifying ketchup as a school lunch vegetable. Bill Clinton had midnight basketball and a high-priced haircut from a Beverly Hills stylist aboard Air Force One.

Bread and Circus?
Now that we’ve gotten through that little game, what does “Bread and Circus” actually refer to? ...

Fearful You'll Lose Your Job to Artificial Intelligence?

Two of MIT’s most knowledgeable guys on artificial intelligence, Andrew McAFee and Erik Brynjolfsson, will tell you to cool it. In fact, they argue that asking how many jobs will be killed by AI is the wrong question. Sure, Frey and Osborne’s 2015 analysis found that nearly 50% of current jobs are susceptible to AI. But by no stretch of the imagination is that the whole picture.

Like previous predictions about gains and losses, they’ve almost always been way off. Furthermore, nearly all these predictions have been about job destruction and not job creation...

A Better Understanding of the Trump Presidency

Inevitably, as we face the losses of Republicans and Democrats to Trump, we're trying to make sense of the situation. Making sense of Trump is relatively easy: very little in the toolkit which makes for a great deal of unpredictability. This presidency is unique in that it's the only successful response of American populism. Historically, populists have failed to elect a president.

For years, however, both Republicans and Democrats have failed or were unable to understand how to deal with the social and political discontent of many Americans. In spite of years of denial, it's...

Is Money Wasted By Giving Kids a Taste of College?

The need for hard-to-find talent has some of America’s best companies getting involved in high school education. A former client, now senior executive at General Mills, nailed the problem. “If we don’t build relationships at high school level, another major firm (Target or Best Buy) will steal some of our best potential talent,” she said. Business support and pushing of talent development, even at the pre-college levels, will more and more become a key strategic necessity for American companies. Talent development in K – 12 will take many different forms. 

What top researchers in Minnesota have found is that just a “taste of college” can boost high school student success, providing more opportunity for building our talent base.   

The program, emphasizing dual credit in high school and college, has been pushed by Joe Nathan, one of America’s most respected educationists, who specializes in inner city education. Nathan, formerly of the Humphrey Institute at the University of Minnesota, now runs research out of the Center for School Change at Macalester College.  Nathan believes that if we can develop a sense of “I belong here, I understand this world,” through dual credit classes for poor and minority students, we can keep kids who might otherwise leave school. The growth through advance placement classes, International Baccalaureate programs, or dual credit classes (taught by college profs in high school), has shown surprisingly significant results in developing potential talent. 

The report recommends that “dual credit” courses be available to younger and perhaps the less academically successful.  It also notes that a study of New York and Florida students revealed that dual credit programs demonstrated an “ability to raise the achievement of students not traditionally seen as successful in high school”—low income and low-achieving students. 

Participation increased from 17,581 in 2007-2008 to 21,184 in 2009-2010. That’s a huge change in a state will little over 60,000 public high school graduates per year.  

The program offers a number of significant advantages to both students and families.

• Students can earn a two-year associates degree while enrolled in high school.
• The programs, paid for by the various school districts, are free.
• It keeps some of the kids in school who might otherwise drop out.
• Students and parents can save as much as $40,000 on a four-year degree.
• Provides lower income and minority students a better understanding of school options.
• Provides students with a clearer understand of life goals.
• Makes for a far easier transition for students from high school to college.
• Makes it possible for those who do not see themselves at college to complete relevant certificate programs.
• Studies from several states show that students who take college courses in high school fare better in college. 

At first glance, “dual credit” programs may sound like just another flaky educational idea, but, as the statistics above demonstrate, longitudinal research strongly supports Nathan’s ideas. If you’ve been around inner city kids, you know that it’s their attitudes that get in the way of motivation and prevent them from achieving. And what Nathan’s program does is to focus on those attitudes, and provide constructive opportunities to impact the students’ learning context. 

Extensive research by Carol Dweck and her associates at Stanford has consistently shown that students with a growth mindset—a fundamental attitude--do better in school. Moreover, the research demonstrates that the growth mindset...

What top researchers in Minnesota have found is that just a “taste of college” can boost high school student success, providing more opportunity for building our talent base.   

The program, emphasizing dual credit in high school and college, has been pushed by Joe Nathan, one of America’s most respected educationists, who specializes in inner city education. Nathan, formerly of the Humphrey Institute at the University of Minnesota, now runs research out of the Center for School Change at Macalester College.  Nathan believes that if we can develop a sense of “I belong here, I understand this world,” through dual credit classes for poor and minority students, we can keep kids who might otherwise leave school. The growth through advance placement classes, International Baccalaureate programs, or dual credit classes (taught by college profs in high school), has shown surprisingly significant results in developing potential talent. 

The report recommends that “dual credit” courses be available to younger and perhaps the less academically successful.  It also notes that a study of New York and Florida students revealed that dual credit programs demonstrated an “ability to raise the achievement of students not traditionally seen as successful in high school”—low income and low-achieving students. 

Participation increased from 17,581 in 2007-2008 to 21,184 in 2009-2010. That’s a huge change in a state will little over 60,000 public high school graduates per year.  

The program offers a number of significant advantages to both students and families.

• Students can earn a two-year associates degree while enrolled in high school.
• The programs, paid for by the various school districts, are free.
• It keeps some of the kids in school who might otherwise drop out.
• Students and parents can save as much as $40,000 on a four-year degree.
• Provides lower income and minority students a better understanding of school options.
• Provides students with a clearer understand of life goals.
• Makes for a far easier transition for students from high school to college.
• Makes it possible for those who do not see themselves at college to complete relevant certificate programs.
• Studies from several states show that students who take college courses in high school fare better in college. 

At first glance, “dual credit” programs may sound like just another flaky educational idea, but, as the statistics above demonstrate, longitudinal research strongly supports Nathan’s ideas. If you’ve been around inner city kids, you know that it’s their attitudes that get in the way of motivation and prevent them from achieving. And what Nathan’s program does is to focus on those attitudes, and provide constructive opportunities to impact the students’ learning context. 

Extensive research by Carol Dweck and her associates at Stanford has consistently shown that students with a growth mindset—a fundamental attitude--do better in school. Moreover, the research demonstrates that the growth mindset...

Finally, We're Asking the Right Questions. But What's Going to be Done About the Answers?

Good thinkers are good questioners. Answers can be helpful but they only have a fixed value. Furthermore, answers tend to become obsolete at an accelerating rate. In addition, analytical thinking is only powerful when it can access a large and accurate base of knowledge--and when one's biases are kept in check.

Do angry blue-collar voters have a point? The losers have been ignored. The evidence reveals that a safety net is going to be needed for companies and workers who have been exposed by policy. Eduardo Porter

Why are high profits a problem for big American companies? Big profits are usually ignored, except by investors.  

Profits could be a sign of brilliance or wise investments. But they could be a way to squish competitors. So what, if anything, should be done about them? Economist

Why is learning central to sustained innovation.
The key to successful innovation, most think, is all about improving the development process--or adding new tools. But actually, it's skilled people, not processes, that make for great product. MIT Sloan Mgmt Review 

Why do both conservatives and liberals thrill to 'populist' politicians?  
Do they have anything in common besides bluster? NYTimes Magazine   

Are college students becoming victims of fear and pain? 
Some Emory students describe themselves as afraid and in pain after reading "Trump 2016" in chalk around campus. They demanded that the university president take "punitive and positive action." Is this merely political correctness? Or is there another way to understand their demands. Two sociologists argue that there is a new moral order of a victimhood culture, and it is turning students into moral dependents. Heterodox Academy.

How has truth changed for all of us?
Google's Larry Page has imagined a society where smartphones are miniaturized and hooked into a person's brain. If you need some facts, the phone will tell you the answer. Jill Lepore writes that in the history of truth, a new chapter begins. For example, An American Presidential debate has a lo more in common with trial by combat than with trial by jury, which is what people are talking about when they say these debates seem 'childish': the outcome is the evidence. Essentially, when we Google facts, we give up our reason, and, in a republic, our citizenship. Lepore has her finger on how truth has changed. A new chapter begins. The New Yorker.