There's evidence that what matters in making a sound forecast or decision isn't so much knowledge or experience as good judgment--or, to be more precise, the way a person's mind works.
--Nicholas Kristof, NYTimes Opinion, from an article on learning how to think, March 26,2009
I've been saving this article and quote for a lazy summer day. Not because it's unimportant, but because it's the kind of statement that deserves time to think about.
In his article, Kristof writes about the research on experts and prediction accuracy. Philip Tetlock, a prof at UC Berkeley, has tracked the predictions of 284 experts over 20 years and drawn some fascinating conclusions. They aren't pretty. But the most consistent predictor ove time was fame. The more famous a person, usually a regular guest on the tube, the less accurate his/her predictions. And the more unknown the expert, the more accurate. To understand this distinction, you'll want to read his article and the research here: Learning how to think.
In a previous blog I wrote about managing overconfidence and laid out the skills that most anyone will find very useful. Fact of the matter, when I or my clients become too overconfident I regularly use that tool to assess the thinking. I've found that it often stops the conversation and puts the gray matter in gear. It's a simple test: what evidence do you have that disconfirms your belief? Try it on.