For the first time in a month, unemployment insurance claims were up. For the week ended May 15, there were 471,000 claims filed, in contrast to 446,000 the previous week. Most economists were surprised by the figures. The four week moving average for initial claims has gone up 3,000, from 450,500 to 453,000, an insignificant change.
Initial claims have been stuck in the mid-to-upper 400,00s since November last year. Of course, a one week bounce doesn't mean much, although economists would like to see it move below 400,000 as an indicator of a recovering economy. It's pretty clear that companies are more confident as a result of first quarter earnings and hiring. But hiring has not yet occurred in small business.
The central bank has reduced its forecast for unemployment to a range between 9.1% and 9.5% this year, versus 9.5% to 9.7% in January. The current unemployment rate is 9.9%