Over the past year we've been subjected to an awful lot of political noise, especially in the past few weeks. Far more than usual, what with tea parties, House GOP egging on disruptive protestors, and bricks through windows. But what's the noise really all about?
There are a number of potential answers to that question. One pundit interviewed members of several tea parties and other assorted protests. His sample revealed that a lot of the protestors were out of work. So, perhaps the noise was about jobs. Maybe, but I doubt it.
Of course, many suggest that the noise is primarily about the health care legislation, what's being called, pjoratively, Obamacare. But I noticed that even the Wall Street Journal said that most of the changes in the bill were Republican in origin. The prototype, as Frank Rich commented, is Mitt Romney's Massachusetts health care bill--and Romney, as most of us know, is a dyed-in-the-wool Republican. Although there are some fears, many groundless, I doubt that that is the real issue.
Inevitably, a Tennessee redneck said the problem is that f----ing N---er President of ours. Although the press can usually dig up a nice quote like that by going to the right geography, that's a pretty minority perspective also. Although that's a piece of the real issue, it's certainly not enough by itself to drive all the noise.
When jobs are tight, there's a major American bloc who argue against immigration. Those "damned immigrants (that's nice language) are taking our jobs, using our schools, our hospitals, and they don't deserve them." That complaint has centuries of history behind it, and, at bottom, it's just about fear of people who are different than "us"--whoever "us" is.
And certainly there will always be some arguing against change who insist that we're becoming a Socialist nation. I suspect that that language is beginning to lose its cachet. It's gotten pretty old. Besides, even the illiterate herd understands that calling someone a Socialist is merely how we protest. Most wouldn't recognize a Socialist if they saw one walking down the street with a big sign.
So what's all the noise really about? I believe that Frank Rich has his finger on the real issue (especially since I've been pontificating on the same conclusion for months). And as Rich says, we'd have had the same noise if Obama's first priority had been climate change, immigration or financial reform. Instead, the conjunction of a black president and a female speaker of the House--topped off by a wise Latina on the Supreme Court and a gay Congressional committee chairman--would sow fears of disenfranchisement among a dwindling and threated minority in the country no matter what policies were in play.
So what are the demographics? The tsunami of change is bigger than any bill contemplated by Obama or Congress. And the change is structural. By that I mean that the changes are long term and widespread. During my lifetime, America went from a manufacturing economy (as in WWII and the auto industry) to a service economy, and we won't be going back. Today, in fact, we're not really a service economy, but rather, a knowledge economy. Without education, most are becoming outsiders to even the middle class--and that's really scary.
But when I refer to structural change, at bottom I'm talking about changes within society and about the locus of power. White blue-collar workers no longer determine much of the major decisions in this country. Look at the unions, many of which were populated by white blue-collar guys. In spite of the fact that unions had their finger in Obama's election, the president has no difficulty saying no to them. He realizes that their power is limited and getting more so.
The demographic issues can't be avoided or changed. The Times recently reported that births to Asian, black and Hispanic women accounted for 48% of all births in America during 2008. Furthermore, by 2012, non-Hispanic white births will be in the minority. The Tea Party movement, too, is virtually all white. The Tea Party stuff will eventually go away, if not because of politics, then it'll be about demographics.
There are also religious changes of much significance. It used to be that the WASPs ruled the political and economic roost. Fifty years ago, if you were Irish Catholic, the doors to privilege in Boston were closed. Joe Kennedy bought the home in Hyannis Port only after realizing he could not gain entry into a more exclusive Boston neighborhood. He decided that Boston was no place to bring up Irish Catholic children. Today, a study by the Pew Center found that Protestants, in spite of the Evangelical undertow, are about to become a religious minority. Barely 51% claim to be Protestant.
Ultimately, the street noise today is about the changing demographics of America. Disenfranchisement from assumed privilege and rights is a very painful experience. And that's the major reason why there's a lot of fear on the streets.