Over dinner, a Gen-Y friend recently engaged me in conversation about his decision-making processes. He was giving consideration to a stretchwork opportunity in another division of his firm, and had asked his boss about the matter. Although his boss was very supportive, she had suggested that transferring into another department was dangerous in a recession--he might be the first to be laid off, should the firm decide to cut back.
"I suspect that she may be right." He had drawn a single conclusion that, based on my own experience, was merely one of a number of possibilities. However, he had learned from his coaching and asked an all-important question: "what other inferences could I have drawn from that experience?" He recognized that it's the inferences (the conclusions) he draws that will determine whether or not he takes that stretch opportunity.
Checking your inferences is fundamental to career success, but it's a new skill for many professionals. So what's the best way to check your inferences? Suppose that you pick up today's newspaper and read that a certain economist says that the nation will be out of the woods by the end of 2009. That's the conclusion that he's drawn. Your first question should always be: "On what facts did he base that inference? Reviewing his article, you note that his primary fact is that the stock market has gone up 143 points during the past week. He mentions no other facts. Any thinking reader will recognize that a lot more determines economic success than the stockmarket . The commentator's conclusions are suspect.
But notice what I've done to evaluate his conclusion. I simply asked what facts did he have to support his conclusion? An argument with his conclusion is a waste of time without looking at the facts behind the conclusion.
The truth of the matter is that our reasoning is usually secret to us. We don't inevitably ask about or think about the facts behind our conclusions or inferences. Yet, when it comes to relationships, drawing inferences is something we do all the time. "My boss doesn't like me. My boss plays favorites. My boss will support this project." Put it into the category of friends. "Joe is really a smart guy. Joe is a good listener. Joe will do the right thing." If you were counting, you can see that I've listed six inferences. Are any of them true enough to make short-term or long-term predictions? It always depends on the facts.
For effective problem solving and decision-making, you will want to pay close attention to the inferences or conclusions you and others have drawn. If they will determine your action, you'll be smart to go up-river to identify the facts of the situation. More often than not, a thorough assessment of the facts will point to different inferences and conclusions--which could result in a totally different action step for you. Focusing on the facts beneath your inferences, conclusions and assumptions will go a long way toward raising your decision-making batting average.
My clients and I have come up with the following issues for questioning the facts about relationships, projects, funding and anything else of significance:
- What facts are you paying attention to?
- What facts are you ignoring?
- What facts don't you know?
- What facts (data) are just plain wrong?
- What facts (data) are outdated?
Remember: Knowing what to think is not the real key to effective problem solving and decision-making. Knowing how to think will be one of the make-or-break career skills for this new talent age.